تحلیل و طبقه بندی میزان توسعه یافتگی زیربخش دام‌پروری شهرستان‌های استان زنجان

Introduction: According to the United Nations, the world's population will increase by 2 billion in the next 30 years and reach 9.7 billion by 2050 (United Nations 2019), due to the imbalance between population growth and current agricultural production. It will face a serious challenge for development (Burke et al. 2005). Animal husbandry is one of the most important sub-sectors of agriculture and plays an important role in food security, which globally plays a significant share of GDP in many developing countries (Steinfeld and Mack 2015). In confirmation of this, according to FAO reports, about 50% of GDP in the agricultural sector and more than 20% of total GDP in most developing and even developed countries come from livestock (FAO 1993). In Iran, despite extensive efforts to establish new service organizations and changes in animal husbandry technologies, the productivity of livestock production in Iran is much lower than in developed countries (Rezvanfar et al. 2006). According to the above, it can be concluded that in our country, attention to animal husbandry development is inevitable due to its importance in providing food security and economy. But at present, the development of the animal husbandry in the country is facing many obstacles. Removing existing barriers and proper planning for the optimal allocation of resources in order to increase the productivity of this sector requires an understanding of the current situation and capabilities of this sector so that its development scenarios are based on existing realities. This requires recognizing the specific conditions of each region and planning in accordance with the developments and needs of the country with the correct use of new scientific and technical achievements, as a result of which different provinces of the country as intermediate levels are no exception. Therefore, considering the potential and real capacities of the livestock sector in Zanjan province, the present study aims to estimate the current situation of the animal husbandry and classify the cities of Zanjan province for principled and rational planning for the development of the animal husbandry in the province.
Material and method: The present study is a cross-sectional study in terms of the purpose of applied research and in terms of time horizons because it was conducted in a specific time period. It is also a descriptive-analytical research method that has been used to collect information from library and field studies. The study area cities of Zanjan province. The present study is based on the analysis of a set of indicators to identify levels of animal husbandry development in the cities of Zanjan province based on 45 indicators in four dimensions of population (10 indicators), technical-managerial (14 indicators), economic-financial (14 indicators) and Service infrastructure (index 7) is done. For data analysis, since the indicators are not of equal importance, the indicators were weighted using the AHP method. Then, according to the research approach based on the analysis of a set of indicators to identify the development pattern of each of the four dimensions in order to create a composite index, in this stage using 45 indicators for the four main dimensions of animal husbandry in Zanjan province with The TOPSIS multi-criteria decision making method was analyzed. Finally, after analyzing the data related to the main indicators and the total index, using the above results, using the techniques of Arc GIS, geographical information system, the cities of Zanjan province were zoned.
Results and discussion: The results showed cities of Zanjan province are different in terms of animal husbandry indicators and the cities have a different position according to the conditions that have animal husbandry indicators in different dimensions. Khorramdareh city in population composition index and technical-managerial index, Khorramdareh, Zanjan and Abhar cities in economic-financial index, Khorramdareh, Abhar and Zanjan cities in infrastructure-service index. Finally, in the total index, the cities of Khorramdareh, Abhar and Zanjan have been developed. Also, the situation of Zanjan cities in four dimensions of infrastructure-services, population composition, economic-financial and technical-managerial shows that in all cities of the province, economic-financial, technical-managerial and infrastructure-services indicators are not distributed in accordance with the population index, and the economic-financial index is distributed almost equally in all cities of the province, regardless of the needs of the city. The technical-managerial and infrastructure-service index in the center of the province and the cities of Abhar and Khorramdareh is higher than other cities in the province due to the existence of animal husbandry industrial centers. Based on the combined animal husbandry index in Zanjan province, it is clear that only Khorramdareh city is in a favorable situation compared to other cities and Abhar and Zanjan cities are in the middle level and the rest of the cities are underdeveloped, which shows the distribution of resources and infrastructure according to The capacity and needs of the animal husbandry sector in the cities of the province are disproportionate.
Conclusion: Based on what can be concluded from the results of this study, the point is that in Zanjan province, the most important obstacle and problem in the development of the animal husbandry is infrastructure-service and technical-management issues. Planners and policymakers must first focus their plans on creating infrastructure appropriate to the different areas of the province's cities. In addition to providing infrastructure, providing services to the animal husbandry is essential to improve the quantity and quality of livestock and its products. Finally, what doubles the impact of infrastructure and services is technical and managerial issues, because if the infrastructure and services are optimal but the technical and managerial issues are not correct, development will not happen as planned by planners, Which is improved by hiring and consulting experts.